Legal and Regulatory Landscape
A recent federal appeals court ruling allows prediction market Kalshi to offer US election contracts, despite ongoing legal battles with the over the legality of such betting.
The legality of political betting in the US remains debated, with some exchanges operating outside American jurisdiction, highlighting a complex interplay between regulation and demand for election betting.
Market Dynamics and Influence
Betting markets like and Kalshi have seen billions in trades, with notable activity from anonymous accounts potentially aiming to manipulate perceptions of Trump's electoral chances.
Despite their controversial status, betting markets are increasingly viewed as tools for gauging political sentiment, even attracting attention from mainstream media and analysts as indicators of public mood.