The Rise of Betting Platforms
Recent legal changes have ushered in a wave of election betting platforms in the , with , , and Robinhood among those allowing wagers on candidates like and .
Despite the surge in U.S. election betting, experts caution that these markets should not be seen as accurate predictors of election outcomes, emphasizing the difference between betting odds and traditional polls.
Divergence Between Betting Odds and Polls
Betting markets, including and Kalshi, show a strong favor towards Trump's victory, contrasting with polls that suggest a tighter race or slight lead for Harris. This divergence has sparked debate over the reliability of each method.
Critics argue that betting markets could be skewed by factors like "wash trading" or the influence of high-profile endorsements, questioning whether they accurately reflect public sentiment or are manipulated.