Spending Forecast and Economic Indicators
The National Retail Federation projects U.S. consumers will spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion during the 2024 holiday season, signaling a 2.5%-3.5% increase from 2023 but slower than the previous year's growth due to inflation concerns.
This forecast aligns with the average increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, despite a more robust spending surge during the pandemic years. Economic factors like employment, wages, and consumer confidence are considered in these predictions.
Challenges and Adjustments
Factors such as a presidential election, fewer shopping days due to the Thanksgiving calendar, and economic impacts from hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect sales. Additionally, the ongoing inflation and higher interest rates may lead consumers to be more price-conscious.
Retail giants like are adapting by starting promotions earlier. Meanwhile, online sales are expected to rise by 8.9%, driven by a greater interest in discounts, averaging about 30%. This contrasts with the 4.9% increase in online sales the previous year.